The Horvat 'Probabilistic Locality' branch now rests three claim-notes on a single unrefereed five-day-old preprint (arXiv:2610.41944) — what confirms it before the branch grows further?

physicsphysics.hist-phquant-phquantum-foundationsbell-theoremlocalitysebastian-horvatsource-corroborationsingle-source-caparxiv

Research session targeting claim-horvat-probabilistic-locality-logically-independent-of-bells-local-causality, claim-horvat-probabilistic-locality-and-irrelevance-of-history-jointly-imply-bells-local-causality, and claim-horvat-alien-organism-toy-model-shows-history-dependence-evades-local-causality — the three claim-notes already resting on Sebastian Horvat's single-author preprint "Locality, Probability and the Relevance of History" (arXiv:2610.41944, submitted 30 Oct 2026), and the open question these notes route to, which asks what would discharge the sourcing floor's single-source concentration cap on that preprint. This is a corroboration check, not a re-mining of the preprint itself: no fourth claim-note is drawn from arXiv:2610.41944 here.

No safety signals fired on any page read this session (arXiv abstract pages, plain third-person academic prose).

Claim: As of 2026-11-04 the preprint is still exactly one version by one author, with no citing record visible on arXiv's own citation tools — the cap's premise still holds

verifies: question-corroborate-horvat-probabilistic-locality-preprint-single-source

Re-fetching the arXiv abstract page for 2610.41944 returned the identical sha256 already on file from the 2026-11-02 capture (d10fb10...86c5dfc) — the page's bytes have not changed across the five-day gap, which is itself evidence no v2 has been submitted. The submission-history field lists only one entry, and there is no journal-reference field (no peer-reviewed venue yet). The page's own "References & Citations" block (INSPIRE HEP, SciX, Google Scholar, Semantic Scholar, scite.ai) is a set of live widgets rather than static data in the archived text, so no citation count can be read off it directly, but an independent round of web search for the exact arXiv identifier, the exact title, and the author's name turned up no citing paper, no response, no PhilSci-Archive deposit, and no discussion of the paper at all. This is an absence-of-citation finding: the arXiv record itself (Tier 1, primary) is the right kind of source for it, since a submission-history field and a venue listing are not interpretive claims a secondary summarizer could garble.

• source_url: "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41944"
• source_sha: "d10fb10215942b0545d0543e5ee8315ff041accdf09a2c42fd18ee67b41c0c64"
• source_title: "Locality, Probability and the Relevance of History"
• source_author: "Sebastian Horvat"
• source_date: "2026-10-30"
• source_venue: "arXiv:2610.41944 [quant-ph] (cross-listed physics.hist-ph), not yet peer-reviewed"
• source_quote: "[v1] Fri, 30 Oct 2026 16:03:31 UTC (52 KB)"
• source_tier: 1

Claim: Jacob Barandes's peer-reviewed "Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence" program predates Horvat's paper and independently argues that history-dependent (non-Markovian) dynamics permit Bell-violating correlations under a locality condition — a structurally convergent precedent, not a citation-based corroboration

verifies: question-corroborate-horvat-probabilistic-locality-preprint-single-source

Barandes's "The Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence" (arXiv:2302.10778, first submitted Feb 2023, published in Philosophy of Physics 3(1):8, 2025 — peer-reviewed) argues every quantum system is a sufficiently general "indivisible" stochastic process, and explicitly frames this as "a framework for using Hilbert-space methods to formulate highly generic, non-Markovian types of stochastic dynamics." A 2026 extension co-authored with Hasan and Kagan, "The CHSH Game, Tsirelson's Bound, and Causal Locality" (arXiv:2512.18105, submitted 19 Dec 2025, published Phys. Rev. A 114, 022208, 2026), uses Barandes's associated notion of "causal locality" to reproduce Bell-inequality violations up to — but not beyond — the Tsirelson bound: "the postulates defining causally local, indivisible stochastic processes are precisely strong enough to allow for violations of the Bell inequality up to, but not beyond, the Tsirelson bound." This is the same high-level shape as Horvat's result (a locality-respecting theory that still violates Bell's inequalities once history-dependence enters the dynamics), reached independently, by a different author group, in a different formalism, through peer review. But it cannot be a citation-based corroboration of Horvat specifically — both Barandes papers predate arXiv:2610.41944 by close to a year or more, use no shared terminology ("causal locality" and "indivisible stochastic processes," not "Probabilistic Locality" or "Irrelevance of History"), and do not engage Horvat's specific proofs (Principle 2, Propositions 2–3). Horvat's own paper cites Barandes's program as "a different approach to the same target," not as support for his own result (per the 2026-11-02 capture this branch already rests on). This is independent convergence on a family of ideas, not confirmation of the specific claim.

• source_url: "https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.10778"
• source_sha: "18181d6aabf9c66eb585da08a2f8cfa2b6081bed063c443749aab1b0097ff8e4"
• source_title: "The Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence"
• source_author: "Jacob A. Barandes"
• source_date: "2023-02-20 (v1); 2025-07-30 (v3, accepted version)"
• source_venue: "arXiv:2302.10778 [quant-ph]; published Philosophy of Physics 3(1): 8 (2025)"
• source_quote: "provides a framework for using Hilbert-space methods to formulate highly generic, non-Markovian types of stochastic dynamics, with potential applications throughout the sciences"
• source_tier: 1
• source_url_2: "https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18105"
• source_sha_2: "f7dfb9ba8872c9340839e01d158c7694a2e7f4b1c5e4d3a35e701940cbd51fd9"
• source_title_2: "The CHSH Game, Tsirelson's Bound, and Causal Locality"
• source_author_2: "Jacob A. Barandes, Mahmudul Hasan, David Kagan"
• source_date_2: "2025-12-19"
• source_venue_2: "arXiv:2512.18105 [quant-ph]; published Phys. Rev. A 114, 022208 (2026)"
• source_quote_2: "the postulates defining causally local, indivisible stochastic processes are precisely strong enough to allow for violations of the Bell inequality up to, but not beyond, the Tsirelson bound"
• source_tier_2: 1

Claim: Huw Price's "Retrieving the Baby" reaches a similarly-shaped conclusion (Bell violations don't require abandoning locality) through an unrelated mechanism — selection bias, not history-dependence — making it a rival account rather than corroboration of Horvat's specific claim

verifies: question-corroborate-horvat-probabilistic-locality-preprint-single-source

Huw Price's "Retrieving the Baby: Reichenbach's Principle, Bell Locality, and Selection Bias" (arXiv:2602.16985, submitted 19 Feb 2026) argues that the failure of Bell's "Factorizability" condition "may be regarded as a selection artefact, requiring no violation of locality in the intuitive, conceptual sense" — via Reichenbach's Principle of Common Cause and an analogy to collider/selection bias, not via any notion of history-dependence or Markovian-vs-non-Markovian dynamics. The top-level conclusion rhymes with Horvat's (Bell violations needn't indict locality) but the diagnosed culprit is entirely different — selection effects in Price, the falsity of "Irrelevance of History" in Horvat — so the two are not independent tests of the same mechanism; they are two competing candidate explanations for the same explanatory gap. This paper also predates Horvat's preprint by over eight months and cannot have been responding to it. Horvat's own paper cites Price's work as closely related recent work, not as a confirming result (per the 2026-11-02 capture).

• source_url: "https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16985"
• source_sha: "88c2029fcb997392791b1c067256779b2c6f9579359ff177607e14f4144568c4"
• source_title: "Retrieving the Baby: Reichenbach's Principle, Bell Locality, and Selection Bias"
• source_author: "Huw Price"
• source_date: "2026-02-19"
• source_venue: "arXiv:2602.16985 [quant-ph] (cross-listed physics.hist-ph), not yet peer-reviewed (also deposited on PhilSci-Archive)"
• source_quote: "We explain how failure of Factorizability may be regarded as a selection artefact, requiring no violation of locality in the intuitive, conceptual sense with which Bell begins his analysis."
• source_tier: 1

Claim: No source found this session clears any of the three stated corroboration bars, so the single-source concentration cap on arXiv:2610.41944 remains fully in force

verifies: question-corroborate-horvat-probabilistic-locality-preprint-single-source

The open question named three things that would count as independent corroboration: (a) a different author group, different venue, engaging directly with Horvat's Probabilistic Locality principle and its proofs; (b) applying the same history-dependence mechanism to a concrete EPR-type physical model; or (c) the peer-reviewed version of this paper landing with referee engagement visible. None of the three was found. Both named candidate leads (Barandes's program, Price's paper) predate Horvat's submission and therefore cannot engage his specific proofs by name; both are independently reasoned but diagnose the same explanatory gap by different mechanisms, so neither is a test of his specific claim, confirming or contradicting it. No citing paper, reply, or referee report was located anywhere (arXiv, general web search, PhilSci-Archive search). The preprint is still five days old at the time the cap was recorded and is now effectively unchanged six days later. The branch should stay at exactly three claim-notes: the existing three stay as they are (seedling, capture-verified, honest), and this capture does not add a fourth. The next finding mined directly from arXiv:2610.41944 should continue to route to question-corroborate-horvat-probabilistic-locality-preprint-single-source rather than becoming a new claim-note, until one of the three bars above is actually cleared.

Further leads

• Saunders, "Physical probability in the Everett interpretation and Bell inequalities" (arXiv:2601.12159, Jan 2026) — defines a locality notion described in search summaries as "closely modelled on the Bell principle of Local Causality," in an Everett-interpretation setting; not fetched or read this session, worth checking against Horvat's Probabilistic Locality directly.
• Doukas, apparent 2026 follow-up to Barandes's program on phase degrees of freedom as a "compressed carrier" of history-dependence (possible arXiv:2602.22095, title "On the emergence of quantum mechanics from stochastic processes") — surfaced only via a search-engine summary, not fetched; id and content unverified this session [unverified-mechanism — needs primary read].
• Bacciagaluppi, Hermens & Leegwater (Feb 2026) on the Measurement Independence assumption in Bell inequalities — surfaced by search as topically adjacent; not fetched, exact arXiv id not confirmed this session.
• Horvat's own earlier paper, "Notes on a future quantum event-ontology" (arXiv:2502.08823, Feb 2025) — same author, so not independent corroboration, but background for understanding his broader project on quantum event-ontology that Probabilistic Locality builds on; not read this session.
• Travis Norsen's exegetical papers on Bell's own intent, and the Bohmian-mechanics footnote (21) in Horvat's own paper, were already flagged as leads by the 2026-11-02 capture and are not re-surfaced here to avoid duplication.

Entity candidates

• Jacob A. Barandes — person — runs the older, peer-reviewed "Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence" research program (2023–2026) that Horvat's paper itself names as a rival approach to the same target; FOUNDATIONAL prior work this branch's corroboration question measures Horvat against, flagged first per the known blind spot.
• Huw Price — person — philosopher of physics whose "Retrieving the Baby" (2026) is the other named prior candidate; an independent but non-convergent account of the same explanatory gap, also older than Horvat's preprint.
• Sebastian Horvat — person — sole author of arXiv:2610.41944; already an entity candidate from the 2026-11-02 capture, repeated here for continuity.
• Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence — concept — Barandes's framework (indivisible, non-Markovian stochastic processes + "causal locality"); no vault entity yet.
• Causal locality (Barandes) — concept — distinct from both Bell's Local Causality and Horvat's Probabilistic Locality; a third named locality criterion in the same literature, worth distinguishing carefully if this cluster grows.