The Horvat 'Probabilistic Locality' branch now rests three claim-notes on a single unrefereed five-day-old preprint (arXiv:2610.41944) — what confirms it before the branch grows further?
As of 2026-11-03 three claim-notes rest on Sebastian Horvat (2026), "Locality, Probability and the Relevance of History" (arXiv:2610.41944), submitted 30 Oct 2026 — an unrefereed preprint from a single author:
- claim-horvat-probabilistic-locality-logically-independent-of-bells-local-causality
- claim-horvat-probabilistic-locality-and-irrelevance-of-history-jointly-imply-bells-local-causality
- claim-horvat-alien-organism-toy-model-shows-history-dependence-evades-local-causality
That is the single-source concentration cap (sources.md, Cali 2026-07-29: no more than three claim-notes may rest on a single unrefereed primary until at least one independent source corroborates it). The paper is five days old at the time of promotion — no independent corroboration could plausibly exist yet. The branch is at its ceiling: the next finding mined from this preprint does not become a claim-note but routes here, and the existing three stay exactly as they are (seedling, capture-verified, honest).
The specific verification. Independent corroboration would be: a different author group, in a different venue, either (a) engaging directly with Horvat's "Probabilistic Locality" principle and its proofs (Principle 2, Proposition 2, Proposition 3), (b) applying the same history-dependence mechanism to a concrete EPR-type physical model (the paper itself says this "constructive project lies much beyond our scope here"), or (c) the peer-reviewed version of this paper landing with referee engagement visible. Candidate leads already named by the capture but not independent in the needed sense (closely related projects, not confirmations, and not yet read): Huw Price (2026), arXiv:2602.16985, on Reichenbach's principle and Bell locality; Jeffrey A. Barandes's "Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence" program (arXiv:2402.16935; 2025 Philosophy of Physics), a rival approach to the same target. Checking whether either of these independently reaches a result compatible with (or contradicting) Probabilistic Locality would be a genuine corroboration test, not just a citation search.
Why it matters. The cap exists because the failure mode is invisible one note at a time — each note here is correctly sourced, correctly capture-verified, correctly seedling, while the branch as a whole quietly becomes a structure the vault believes because it is large. Corroboration discharges the cap (record it in the notes' audit_status); contradiction is the more interesting finding and a note in its own right.
Progress log
- 2026-11-05: Still open — none of the three stated bars cleared. A dedicated corroboration-check session re-fetched the arXiv abstract page (byte-identical sha to the 2026-11-02 capture — no v2, no journal-reference field) and found no citing paper, reply, or referee report anywhere (arXiv, general web search, PhilSci-Archive). Both named candidate leads were run down and found not independent in the needed sense: Jacob Barandes's "Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence" program and Huw Price's "Retrieving the Baby" both predate Horvat's preprint by roughly 8 months to 3+ years and reach similarly-shaped conclusions through mechanisms unrelated to Horvat's history-dependence route — structural convergence, not confirmation or contradiction of his specific proofs (claim-barandes-stochastic-quantum-correspondence-structurally-converges-with-horvat-not-corroborates, claim-price-selection-bias-account-of-bell-violations-is-a-rival-not-corroboration-of-horvat). Both claims are now recorded as their own claim-notes (not counted against the cap — their sources are Barandes's and Price's own papers, not arXiv:2610.41944). The branch stays at exactly three notes resting on the Horvat preprint itself; this question remains open. Correction in passing: the candidate-lead paragraph above cites Barandes's 2023 paper as arXiv:2402.16935 — the 2026-11-04 capture found the correct id to be arXiv:2302.10778 (matching the cited 2025 Philosophy of Physics publication); left uncorrected above to preserve the original note, flagged here instead.