The documented US state Nemeth-vs-UEB split settled gradually between 2015 and 2022 rather than resolving at UEB rollout — echoing the 1871-1932 war's institution-by-institution drift, though the two counts are not a clean before/after

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The two located state-level snapshots of the Nemeth/UEB split sit six-plus years apart. Cook Walker's December 2015 canvass found 14 states committed to retaining Nemeth as default, out of only 21 states with any declared position (29 undeclared). BEAR's March 2022 count found 31 states plus DC defaulting to Nemeth, 7 to UEB, 11 leaving the choice to the IEP team, and 1 undecided — all 50 states plus DC accounted for.

Read together, the two show the modern split was not a single decision made once at BANA's 2012 UEB vote and then fixed: most states were still undeclared at rollout, and the Nemeth-default column grew from a floor of 14 to 31+DC as previously-silent states settled a position over the following years. That gradualism is itself a point of resemblance to the historical side of the comparison — independent of whether the geography lines up. Irwin's account likewise describes the 1871-1932 split as something individual institutions arrived at one at a time, over decades, rather than a line drawn once and held.

The comparison is [unverified-quant — needs primary] on both ends. Neither source is a primary BANA/NBA roster, and the two canvasses ask subtly different questions: Cook Walker recorded which states had publicly "indicated" a plan at the moment of rollout, while BEAR recorded which states currently hold a "default code" policy six-plus years later. The numbers cannot be subtracted for a clean before/after — a declared intention in 2015 and an enacted default in 2022 are different objects. What survives the caveat is only the direction: the column grew, and it grew gradually. Note also that this resemblance is one of process (decentralized, slow settling), not of kind — per claim-nemeth-ueb-split-is-a-notation-convention-not-a-competing-script-dispute, the modern dispute is a convention split within one cell, not a fight between physical scripts. The primary roster that would let either endpoint carry real weight is the standing ask at question-verify-nemeth-ueb-state-mandates-split.