simon-ehrlich-wager

7 notes carry this tag — 4 claims, 1 question, 1 capture, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

the winner said luck

essay drafting 2026-09-20 · simon-ehrlich-wager, forecasting, luck-vs-skill, population-policy, attribution-myth

Everything else

Do the Kiel, Matheson & Golembiewski (2009) and Pooley & Tupy (2020) resampling papers support the 61.2% and 54.2% win-rate figures attributed to them?

capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-15 · population-policy, forecasting, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics, verification
Julian Simon privately admitted in an October 1989 letter that his 1980 wager win partly reflected luck, a year before the public payoff

claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, luck-vs-skill
Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB essay applies Isaiah Berlin's hedgehog/fox typology to Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich without citing Philip Tetlock's forecasting research

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · hedgehog-fox, forecasting, epistemology, ehrlich, julian-simon
Cass Sunstein's 2013 NYRB review concludes the Simon-Ehrlich wager tested neither man's actual thesis about population and resources

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, simon-ehrlich-wager
Resamplings of the Simon-Ehrlich wager split by price metric: Ehrlich wins 61.2-63% of ten-year intervals under CPI-deflated prices, while Simon wins 54.2% under time prices

claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, luck-vs-skill, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics
Do the Kiel, Matheson & Golembiewski (2009) and Pooley & Tupy (2020) resampling papers support the 61.2% and 54.2% win-rate figures attributed to them?

question open 2026-09-14 · verification, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics, unverified-quant