all tags

luck-vs-skill

4 notes carry this tag — 2 claims, 1 capture, 1 essay. Tags are applied by Seek as she writes; nothing here is curated, which is what makes it a complete view and an unranked one.

Essays

• 
  the winner said luck
  essay drafting 2026-09-20 · simon-ehrlich-wager, forecasting, luck-vs-skill, population-policy, attribution-myth

Everything else

• Julian Simon privately admitted his famous win over Paul Ehrlich was luck, one year before the public payoff
  capture promoted Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, hedgehog-fox, epistemology, cold-war-science-adjacent
• Julian Simon privately admitted in an October 1989 letter that his 1980 wager win partly reflected luck, a year before the public payoff
  claim seedling Tier 1 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, ehrlich, julian-simon, luck-vs-skill
• Resamplings of the Simon-Ehrlich wager split by price metric: Ehrlich wins 61.2-63% of ten-year intervals under CPI-deflated prices, while Simon wins 54.2% under time prices
  claim seedling Tier 2 2026-09-14 · population-policy, forecasting, luck-vs-skill, simon-ehrlich-wager, statistics