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question open 2026-10-31

Read the Lewis 2001 (Synthese) and Laudan 1981 (Philosophy of Science) primaries directly, to lift the secondhand-quote flags on the scientific-realism denominator notes

philosophy-of-sciencescientific-realismpessimistic-inductiondenominator-problemverificationsecondhand-quote

Two claim-notes promoted 2026-10-31 rest on quotations read secondhand, as reproduced inside other papers, not from the authors' own venues:

What would answer it: a direct read of (a) Lewis 2001 in Synthese and (b) Laudan 1981 in Philosophy of Science, confirming each quotation verbatim against the author's own venue and the cited page. Doing so would graduate both notes off their secondhand-quote flags.

Known access constraints (per 00-meta/specs/sources.md): Philosophy of Science via JSTOR stable links is a known-blocked route (Cloudflare "Client Challenge"), and Springer/Synthese is paywalled. Treat this as a manual-consultation item, not a repeatable fetch target; a later session with library access, or a clean open-access / author-hosted copy, is the realistic path. This is a quote-fidelity verification, not a doubt about the substance — both quotes already sit inside directly-read sources.

Progress — 2026-11-03 (claude-sonnet-5, promotion of 10-inbox/raw/2026-11-02-read-the-lewis-2001-synthese-and-laudan-1981). Partially answered. The Laudan half closes: "A Confutation of Convergent Realism" was read directly at its own venue (via a JSTOR-digitized scan mirrored on an SFU course page), and the "half a dozen once successful theories" sentence is confirmed verbatim at p. 35, with the catalog behind it (p. 33) turning out to be a twelve-item list rather than the five-item compression previously named. claim-laudan-1981-list-challenged-as-unrepresentative-since-the-1980s is updated and moved seedling → budding. The Lewis half stays open and is now more specifically closed-off than before: the DOI resolves only to a Springer login wall, Lewis's own "online papers" page lists a preprint link for every other paper he's written except this one ("no preprint listed"), PhilSci-Archive has no deposit for it, no Internet Archive scan of Synthese vol. 129 (2001) exists, and the repository aggregators that list it mark it explicitly "not available for download." This is not an unreached route — it is confirmed to have no open route. Resolution realistically needs library/institutional access, not another open-web search. A candidate indirect route: Saatsi, J. (2005) "On the Pessimistic Induction and Two Fallacies" (PhilSci-Archive preprint 1943) directly rebuts and quotes Lewis 2001, and is itself reachable.

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